The largest cryptocurrencies by capitalization await important events – the unlocking of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC shares and the London hard fork. How will this affect the quotes of digital assets?
In the coming month, two important events will take place in the field of cryptocurrencies. The first is the completion of the six-month period for which the shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund are blocked.
About 40 thousand BTC worth $ 1.4 billion will be unlocked, which may have an impact on the bitcoin rate.
The second event is the Ethereum London hard fork, which is scheduled for August 4th. This update will take place as part of the transition of the cryptocurrency to protocol 2.0.
“Traditional holiday season”
Both July separately and summer as a whole are most often characterized by reduced business activity, since this is traditionally a vacation season, explained Ivan Petukhovsky, co-founder of the EXMO crypto exchange.
According to him, this is why the probability of some kind of price surge in the largest cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization is now quite low.
“Activity in the market can be triggered by the breakdown of bitcoin support level in the region of $ 30 thousand, which will result in massive sales, or by the successful implementation of the Ethereum London hard fork at the beginning of next month, which will result in an increase in the cost of altcoins and a reduction in bitcoin share of the total market capitalization.”
He added that historically August has been one of the worst months for Bitcoin. Therefore, in July it makes sense to expect at least trading in a narrow range, which is observed near the level of $ 30 thousand.
At the same time, Petukhovsky does not predict any major fall due to the unblocking of GBTC shares. According to a report by QCP Capital, this has happened a number of times, and there hasn’t been a massive sell-off in the past.
“Altcoin season is not over yet”
The Ethereum rate is likely to continue to grow thanks to the expectations of a hard fork, says Nikita Zuborev, senior analyst at BestChange.ru.
He is confident that altcoin miners can benefit from the London update, as the EIP 3554 proposal will freeze the mechanism for increasing the difficulty of altcoin mining, launched back in 2015.
“This, in a sense, a compromise solution will help smooth out the situation with miners, whose activity directly affects the popularity and rate of the cryptocurrency.
It is planned that the freeze will last about 10 months from the date of the update, and then it will be lifted or extended, so no shocks associated with Ethereum miners are expected until spring 2022, ”Zuborev emphasized.
Another factor, he called the scandalous proposal EIP-1559, aimed at burning surplus commission. Thanks to this initiative, it will be possible to limit the emission of coins in the coming months, and in a particular case, even temporarily turn the inflationary model of Ethereum 1.0 into a deflationary one.
And any restriction on the offer on the exchanges has a positive effect on the value of tokens, the expert recalled. He expects that the effect of the emission limitation will manifest itself within a month after the launch, in early autumn.
“If we talk about the season of altcoins, most likely it is over for ‘junk’ tokens, the capital from which will continue to return to more reliable cryptocurrencies. At the same time, “top” altcoins can benefit from this no less than bitcoin. In a global sense, the altcoin season is not over yet, but this will not be the market that we saw before the start of the current correction – only popular tokens will win, including Ethereum, ”the specialist concluded.
“A news or a tweet can provoke an impulse.”
The price of bitcoin is now in a narrow corridor, recalled the CEO of the Cryptorg crypto exchange Andrey Podolyan. According to him, the key target for bulls is the level of $ 36 thousand. If it is broken, a movement in the range of $ 45-47 thousand may begin.
For bears, an important level is $ 30,000. If it is broken, a movement to the $ 24-22,000 area may develop, Podolyan warned.
He argues that unlocking GBTC shares should not result in an instant reaction in the BTC market. A bright news or a tweet of a famous character can provoke an impulse now, the expert believes.
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