Experts told in which case the cost of the first cryptocurrency can collapse to $6,000, how low the price of Ethereum will fall and when to wait for the market to return to growth
On the morning of June 14, the bitcoin rate fell to $20.8 thousand for the first time since December 2020. The cryptocurrency has fallen 36% over the past week and is now trading 68% below its all-time high of $69,000 set in November 2020.
Experts analyzed the situation on the market and named the most likely scenarios for the development of events in the near future.
“The final wave of structural correction”
I regard the decline in the CFA market of recent days as the final wave of structural correction in the market, which began at the end of last year. Of course, the decline in prices became quite strong, as can be seen from the volume of liquidations in BTC and ETH, however, neither technically nor fundamentally, I characterize this fall as the beginning of the end for the crypto market.
Currently, the BTC rate is at levels where it is already uncomfortable for long-term buyers (many holders who hold bitcoin for more than 3 years start selling it), for mining (previous generation equipment is already “minus”, S17 is on the verge), therefore, without significant negative triggers, I believe that investors and miners, in general, will take a wait-and-see attitude and prefer to sit out the current decline without a multiple increase in cryptocurrency sales from their stocks.
In any case, those who are stuck in BTC and ETH at the highs without “shoulders” will endure to the last. I would not wait for an avalanche to start selling crypto assets now. It is also important to note that “whales” (wallets > 10k BTC) smoothly accumulate cryptocurrency without dumping it, which indicates the presence of a large number of players for whom current prices are a huge opportunity, and not just paper losses.
From the point of view of cycles, I expect that by the end of July we will see the end of the decline in the market and the beginning of the formation of conditions for further growth. In the most negative scenario, we will see Bitcoin at $17-$18 thousand, and ETH below $1 thousand, however, I will regard these levels as too low relative to the median of the last couple of years, and, as a result, the lower the market goes, the higher the chances for a sharp rise.
At the moment, the level of $19.6 thousand in BTC is historically key, and there will definitely be a struggle for it: this can be seen both in the BTC options market and in the positioning of long-term players.
“Bitcoin’s fall will accelerate to $10,000.”
A severe crypto winter has come to the crypto market. Investors lost their appetite for risk due to high inflation in the US. Friday’s data showed the highest growth rate since December 1981. In May, consumer prices rose by 8.6% against the forecast of 8.3%. In response to the data, bond yields jumped to new highs. The dollar index exceeded 105 points. Since the cryptocurrency market is in the same team with the American stock market, the collapse of the indices immediately affected the dynamics of cryptocurrencies. Investors fear an aggressive rate hike by the Fed (by 75 basis points) and a continuation of the collapse of the SP500 and Nasdaq indices due to monetary tightening.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin and Ethereum tried to stay above the $28,000 and $1,700 levels, respectively. Since the FOMC meeting is taking place on June 15, BTC and ETH rates have broken through support and rushed to lower levels. The activation of liquidity on long positions strengthened the downward movement and led the market to collapse. Market makers did not even try to restrain it, as they understood that they would not be able to stop the avalanche of sell orders. The capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has fallen below $1 trillion for the first time since January 2021. At the stops, the bitcoin rate sank to $20,846, and the ether to $1,075.
The BTC/USDt pair has reached a key support of $20,000. The situation on the market is critical. An anomalous “cooling” is coming. Either stablecoins get rid of the dollar, or services and exchanges suspend the withdrawal of tokens in order to contain the collapse. If, after the Fed meeting, the price does not stand above $20,000, then the fall will accelerate on liquids to $10,000 and empty glasses. Jerome Powell can help you avoid collapse and survive the crypto winter.
Many large investors who have been buying bitcoin since 2020 are at a loss. Those who have free money left will be bribed by cheaper coins. And then, you need to be sure that the US stock market will not sag.
Bitcoin support zone: $19-20 thousand. If sellers take down $19.5 thousand, then up to $6-8.5 thousand everything is free. Resistances: $28.7k and $33k
“We will see new anti-records repeatedly”
Cryptocurrencies collapsed after the American stock exchanges: investors are frightened by data on a record 40-year inflation in the United States (8.6% in May), which gives complete confidence that the Fed may raise the rate by 0.5-0.75% tomorrow. Which means a reduction in the profitability of almost all assets, including risky ones – cryptocurrencies, investment funds and exchanges associated with the crypto market. This amplifies the fall of bitcoin, ether and other coins.
Now everything will depend on the Fed meeting – if the regulator announces a decision to tighten monetary policy tomorrow, this will definitely cause another collapse. Bitcoin can easily go under the $20,000 mark, and Ethereum will fall in price to $800. That will further stimulate the flight of investors from risky assets. This is probably just the beginning, and we will see new anti-records more than once.
