Why Bitcoin can be worth more than $ 100K?? “Realistic scenario”

Representatives of the crypto industry have more than once predicted a rise in the price of BTC up to $ 1 million. Experts assessed the prospects of digital currency and named several arguments in favor of the growth of its rate by thousands of percent

Since the beginning of 2020, bitcoin has risen in price by more than 150%, to the current level of $ 18.3 thousand. Many factors helped the growth of the value of the cryptocurrency. On the one hand, a halving took place on the coin network, as a result of which the miners’ reward decreased from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. On the other hand, there was a crisis in the world, against the background of which large, including institutional investors began to transfer part of the capital to BTC, as a defensive asset. In addition to this, the PayPal payment system added support for the digital coin, which attracted new users to the crypto market.

Until the renewal of the historical maximum of $ 20 thousand, bitcoin remains in price by another 9%. But many representatives of the crypto industry are sure that this is not the limit. For example, Tom Fitzpatrick, a top manager at Citibank, suggested that by December 2021 the price of the first cryptocurrency could rise to $ 318,000. An equally optimistic forecast was voiced by Alex Saunders, head of Nugget’s News. He expects to increase the value of the coin to $ 100 thousand within 5 years, and by 2035 – to $ 1 million.

The forecast for the rise in bitcoin price to $ 1 million was previously proposed by the founder of Global Macro Investor Raul Pal. He believes that the price of the coin will reach this mark within 5 years. The key reason for this growth, Pal called the influx of institutional investors into the cryptocurrency market, who realized that the recovery of the global economy after the coronavirus pandemic would take longer than expected.

The rise in the bitcoin rate to $ 100,000 is a realistic scenario. This position is shared by Andrey Podolyan, CEO of Cryptorg.Exchange. He explained that cryptocurrency is increasingly penetrating into various areas and for many is already not only a means of payment and speculation, but also savings. At the same time, Podolyan noted that the digital coin could be
negatively affected by competition from actively developing digital currencies of states.

“$ 100,000 is a very real figure for me. For example, there was news that in the United States, part of the pension can already be formed in BTC. Imagine how many cue balls will be delayed in the long term. All this mass will cease to put pressure on the market and the price … I will not undertake to argue that bitcoin will never cost $ 1 million, “Podolyan shared.

The possibility of increasing the cost of bitcoin to $ 100 thousand was also admitted by Nikita Zuborev, a senior analyst at Bestchange.ru, specifying that this could happen in the coming year. He gave several reasons for this growth. The first is the increased demand from institutional investors, which began to move into the “FOMO” stage, when the user buys an asset out of a sense of lost profits.

“The fear of lost profits (FoMO) has already come to the institutional market. The rise in popularity of cryptocurrency among large investors adds to the chances of cryptocurrency adoption by society at a deeper level. If earlier public opinion expressed skepticism that no one would allow retail investors to become millionaires, then the scenarios for the enrichment of corporations and the “powerful” are quite realistic,” Zuborev said.

He called the unstable situation in the economy and the active emission of the dollar as the second prerequisite for the growth of the BTC price. The Fed prints fiat currency, it starts to suffer the consequences in the form of rising inflation. Against this background, a digital asset with limited emission looks like an interesting way to preserve capital, the analyst said.

In his opinion, one should not ignore the widely recognized Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which after the spring halving is showing its worth. If the scenario of this model continues to be implemented, then the six-figure price of bitcoin is predicted in August – September 2021, Zuborev said. In addition, he recalled that Bitcoin has twice shown growth by 1000% within a year (in 2013 and 2017), and then the majority also spoke about the impossibility of such growth.

Zuborev also did not exclude a scenario with an increase in the cost of bitcoin to $ 500 thousand – $ 1 million, the probability of this is “not zero.” He believes that the crypto market still has many growth prospects, as evidenced by the sudden rise of the DeFi sector. The tokens related to it grew in price by thousands of percent in a short period of time, for example, the YFI token added more than 100,000% of the price in a month and a half.

The head of the fintech company Exantech, Denis Voskvitsov, is also optimistic. He suggested that in 2021 Bitcoin could significantly exceed the historical maximum of $ 20 thousand. However, the new maximum may become insurmountable for the next three years, this is due to the growth cycles inherent in BTC.

“Bitcoin has up and down cycles associated with halving. In the first year, Bitcoin accelerates, and then the hype fades away, and the quotes decline. In general, during the correction period, bitcoin gives up to 80% of the gain during a bullish cycle (not from the price),” Voskvitsov explained.

From his point of view, bitcoin can really show “astronomical” growth, in theory, a rise to $ 500 thousand or $ 1 million is possible, since the asset was created in order to rise in price. But there are several risks that can keep the value of cryptocurrency from rising. One of them is the emergence of a competitor, because of which the main digital coin can lose its leadership, like Yahoo and Netscape did.

Another risk is government policy. If a hype forms around cryptocurrencies, as in 2017, then the rate of capitalization of bitcoin may create fears of systemic risks among states. Therefore, the next rounds of growth will depend on the ability to survive the pressure of regulators, the expert emphasized.

“Many countries are developing their own digital tokens of national currencies, which, hypothetically, should create competition for bitcoin. Nevertheless, they have a problem in centralization, so projects such as BTC will be popular,” Voskvitsov concluded.

In October, co-founder of investment company Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, said that with the baseline forecast, Bitcoin will rise in price to $ 100,000 in 2021. But if conditions develop more favorably, the rate may rise to $ 250,000, he believes.